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The seasonal relationship between P_Cent and AHT_EQ was found to depend on how far off the equator the ITCZ moves in a series of aquaplanet simulations with varying mixed layer depth. We argue that the asymmetry between the winter and summer Hadley cells is critical to this result due to two processes: 1) AHT_EQ changes more than would be expected from simply translating the annual mean Hadley cell off the equator due to the intensification of the streamfunction in the winter cell as the Hadley cell moves off the equator, and dos) the ITCZ remains equatorward of the zero streamfunction because the maximum meridional divergence of the streamfunction and upward motion gets pushed into the winter cell due to the asymmetry between the winter and summer Hadley cells. As a consequence, the AHT_EQ change required per degree shift in the ITCZ increases as the ITCZ moves farther off the equator. We note that, in the annual average, the ITCZ is relatively close to the equator and the two branches of the Hadley cell are nearly symmetric as compared to the seasonal extremes. This might lead one to believe that the AHT_EQ change required to move the ITCZ 1° would be comparable to that expected from simply translating the Hadley cell meridionally without the concurrent intensification of the winter cell (on the order of 0.1 PW; see red asterisks in Fig. 5) and less than that found over the seasonal cycle (on the order of 0.3 PW; see upper panel of Fig. 3). _Penny and AHT_EQ over the observed seasonal cycle is statistically indistinguishable from the relationship found for the annual mean changes across the ensemble of climate change perturbation experiments. We argue below that the seasonal relationships between P_Cent and AHT_EQ is dictated by the seasonal cycle because the annual average is seldom realized and is better thought of as the average of the seasonal extremes (and the amount of time spent in the extreme) as illustrated in Fig. 7.

The top https://hookupdaddy.net/bbw-hookup/ panel of Fig. 11 shows smoothed histograms (Eilers and Goeman 2004) of monthly mean P_Cent and AHT_EQ for 200 years of the PI simulation in the IPSL model. The annual mean (black cross) is seldom realized and the system rapidly migrates between seasonal extremes of P_Penny in the Northern Hemisphere and southward AHT_EQ in the boreal summer and P_Cent in the Southern Hemisphere and northward AHT_EQ in the austral summer. The linear best fit (dashed black line) connects the seasonal extremes with a slope equal to the regression coefficient between P_Cent and AHT_EQ and nearly passes through the origin. By statistical construction, the annual mean lies on the linear best fit line. In short, the annual mean reflects the average of the two seasonal extremes. 4

(top) Smoothed histogram (colors) in the AHT_EQ–P_Penny plane taken from a 200-yr-long PI simulation in the L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) model. The dashed line is the linear best fit to the monthly data for all years of the simulation and the cross is the annual average. (middle) As at top, but the probability density function is contoured [contour interval of 0.75% (° PW) ?1 ] with black contours showing the PI values and red values showing the 2XCO₂ values. The red and black crosses and dashed lines represent the annual average and linear best fits in the 2XCO₂ and PI simulations respectively. (bottom) As in the middle panel except only the 2.5% (° PW) ?1 contour is shown. The PI simulation is shown in black, 2XCO₂ in red, LGM in blue, and the 6Kyr simulation in green.

Symbol of your own spatial structure of winds (grey arrows), meridional mass overturning streamfunction (strong and you will dashed gray contours into the negative and positive streamfunction values, respectively), precipitation (blue traces), and you will vertically integrated atmospheric temperature transport (red-colored arrows) in the Hadley phone having (top) boreal summer and you can (bottom) austral june. The new equator is the dashed environmentally friendly range.

(left) The worldwide, annual-averaged atmospheric times funds and you can (middle),(right) the new interhemispheric examine of your opportunity budget regularly get this new cross-equatorial atmospheric temperatures transportation. Brand new position brackets imply the SH integrated without having the NH inbuilt split from the 2 and you can OHT + S is the mix-equatorial water heat transport minus shop during the per hemisphere.

(ii) Warm SST gradient

(top) Scatterplot of seasonal stage off tropical rain centroid compared to get across-equatorial atmospheric temperatures transportation. For each and every get across are predicated on this new monthly average while the size of your own cross on every axis is short for brand new 95% trust period reviewed on the interannual variability. The newest occupied box ‘s the yearly mediocre. The latest dashed line ‘s the linear better fit to the month-to-month averages. (bottom) Once the on greatest, however for the newest tropical rain centroid versus the newest interhemispheric difference between warm SST.

Seasonal cycle of hemispheric contrast in energy fluxes defined as half the difference in spatial integral of fluxes in the SH minus that in the NH. The solid lines are the observations and the shaded region represents ±1 standard deviation about the CMIP3 PI ensemble average. The terms are defined in the legend and discussed in the text in reference to Eq. (5). The first four terms in the legend sum to yield AHT_EQ.

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(top) Scatterplot of AHT_EQ vs the mass overturning streamfunction at 500 hPa over the equator over the seasonal cycle in the observations. Each asterisk is a monthly average and the dashed line is the linear best fit. (bottom) Scatterplot of the location of the 0 mass overturning streamfunction ?_?=0 at 500 hPa vs AHT_EQ (red asterisk and linear best fit dashed line) and P_Penny vs AHT_EQ (blue asterisk and linear best fit dashed line). _?=0 and AHT_EQ from Eq. (9) is shown by the dashed black line.

(top) Seasonal range of precipitation centroid vs atmospheric heat transport at the equator (AHT_EQ) in individual CMIP preindustrial models (dashed colored lines with filled dots on each end), the model ensemble mean (thick purple line and filled dots), and the observations (thick black line and filled dots). The seasonal range is twice the amplitude of the annual harmonic of each variable and the slope of the line is the regression coefficient of the monthly data. The models are color coded by their annual average P_Penny with the color scale given by the color bar to the right. (bottom) As at top, but for precipitation centroid vs interhemispheric contrast of tropical SST.

Histograms of P_Cent in the CMIP3 PI models and observations. The shaded region is the normalized histogram of monthly mean P_Cent and the seasonal range (defined as twice the amplitude of the annual harmonic) of P_Penny is given by the dashed lines attaching the filled dots (representing the climatological northernmost and southernmost extent). The annual average for each model is also shown with the shaded diamond. The models are organized on the y axis and color coded by annual average P_Penny with the same color bar used in Fig. 6. Observations are given by the thick magenta line and the CMIP3 ensemble average is shown in the thick black lines. The vertical dashed black lines are the ensemble average annual mean, northernmost, and southernmost extent P_Penny.